Monetarismo cum Estatismo: Government spending and the limits of monetary stabilization
This paper reconstructs and formalizes a theory developed by Cuban-Argentine economist Armando P. Ribas between the late 1970s and early 1980s and employs it to analyze the stabilization plan currently being implemented in Argentina. The exercise has value not only from the perspective of the history of economic ideas: several of the conditions that made Ribas’s framework relevant remain present in Argentina today. Ribas’s central innovation was to adapt Wicksell’s natural-rate theory to a bifurcated economy with a large and relatively inefficient public sector that does not face the same market discipline as the private productive sector. When nominal government spending grows faster than the monetary or exchange-rate anchor, the resulting Wicksellian gap shifts the burden of adjustment onto the private sector, generating what Ribas called the “decapitalization effect.” Drawing on Auernheimer (1983), the paper separates the passive-money dynamics that can make monetary expansion endogenous to government spending from Ribas’s distinctive two-sector resource-allocation mechanism. The analysis suggests that sustainable disinflation requires reducing the government’s real claim on resources, not merely changing how it is financed. This bears directly on the debate over stabilization and reform and supports the view that, in Argentina, the two are inseparable.